FBS Football: Agent-Gate 2010

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Throwing the word "Gate" behind subject matter gives the impression of impropriety, and in turn draws a line in the sand for those trying to decide what to make of an issue.

At SEC Football Media Day earlier this month, Alabama head coach Nick Saban described unscrupulous sports agents as "pimps." While I'm sure there are some people out there, especially among the collegiate coaching ranks, that believe that comparison gives pimps a bad name, is Saban really serious? I mean, in watching his press conference it was hard not to think that Ashton Kutcher was going to walk out at some point and let us all know we were being punked.

Saban's comments may have been a knee-jerk reaction to the recent discovery that one of his top players, defensive end Marcel Dareus, is under investigation by the NCAA for attending a party in South Beach funded by an NFL agent. More absurd and transparent comments would come later, when Saban suggested that Alabama may be best served to sever its ties with the NFL.

Are you kidding me?

Cutting ties with the NFL for Alabama would be tantamount to program suicide. Saban himself would soon be looking for another job if he wasn't able to go into recruits' living rooms and tout the successful transition from the University of Alabama football program to the NFL.

For a lot of college recruits, the NFL carrot determines where they will go to school. For many, such a career is all that matters. Escaping their current situation and becoming a savior to their family and friends is the only incentive needed to make a decision, and the promise of an NFL salary certainly tips the scales.

What sports agents are doing is no different than what collegiate coaches do in courting high school kids. The only real difference is that the NCAA actively investigates the first, while all but turning a blind eye to the below-board things that happen with the latter.

The programs themselves often look the other way in regard to their own boosters, who lavish gifts on the truly talented players, yet the same schools are crying foul when sports agents do the very same thing?

The argument against such activity is that the student-athlete receives a first-class education at little to no cost, and that should be sufficient reward. The reality, however, in the case of top football programs, is that the student-athlete generates far more revenue for the schools than benefits received, and what the school gets out of the relationship monetarily far outweighs what the player attains.

The task of bridging that gap has fallen on the sports agent. In all professions there are good and bad practitioners. While some agents will go to any extreme to get their hooks into a potential client and exploit their current situations, there are plenty of others that follow the rules to the letter of the law.

College football at the highest level, is a money-making machine. Everyone in the process seems to get a piece of the pie, from gamblers to universities to the coaches they employ. However, the NCAA says that the only ones "not allowed" to get in on the action are the young men who actually play the game.

We can't have it both ways. If college football at the FBS level is a business, why are we outraged that student-athletes are starting to make business decisions?

South Carolina, Georgia and Florida have joined the group of SEC programs under NCAA scrutiny for what it deems to be improper contact with agents.

In the wake of all the press given to Reggie Bush's transgressions at USC, expect similar stories across the nation to pop up as the 2010 season approaches and throughout the year.

This particular problem has always been here, and until the NCAA lessens the restrictions on the student-athlete, Agent-Gate isn't going away anytime soon.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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