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02/08/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryane Clowe's goal in the third period lifted the San Jose Sharks to a 3-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre.
Dan Boyle and Joe Pavelski each had a goal for the Sharks, who have won four of their last five games. Evgeni Nabokov made 32 saves in the win.
Phil Kessel had a goal and an assist while Tyler Bozak scored for the Maple Leafs, who have dropped eight of their last 10. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, who posted shutouts in his first two games after being acquired by Toronto from Anaheim last week, gave up three goals on 26 shots.
With the score tied in the third period, San Jose took the lead with 6:39 to play. Devin Setoguchi sent a pass from the left side that hit off the skate of a Maple Leaf in front and went right to Clowe, who buried it for a 3-2 lead.
From there the Sharks defense shut down the Maple Leafs, who pulled Giguere with 1 1/2 minutes to play but were unable to net the equalizer.
The Maple Leafs got the only goal of the first period as Kessel got the puck at the right circle, skated down low and sent a pass across the ice to Bozak, who one-timed it home with 9:24 to play in the frame.
San Jose scored a pair of goals in the second period to grab the lead.
The first goal came off a right circle faceoff win as Joe Thornton won the draw and the puck came back to Boyle, who fired a shot on net that bounced past Giguere at the 3:17 mark.
Just 2:24 later, the Sharks made it a 2-1 game when Pavelski fired a wrister on net using the defender as a screen to sneak the puck past Giguere.
Toronto, though, tied the game in the final minute of the second with a power- play marker as Dion Phaneuf's wrister from the right point was kicked out to the left side where Kessel buried it for his 21st goal of the year.
Game Notes
Tomas Kaberle's assist on Kessel's goal was the 400th helper of his career...Toronto plays its final game before the Olympic break at St. Louis on Friday...San Jose continues its six-game road trip in Columbus on Wednesday...San Jose has won four straight against Toronto and has not lost a game to the Maple Leafs since January 29, 2002.
<< Reynolds leads Villanova past West Virginia in Big East showdown
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scottie Reynolds scored 19 of his 21 points
in the second half, as No. 4 Villanova handed fifth-ranked West Virginia an
82-75 defeat in a Big East showdown at WVU Coliseum.
The Wildcats (21-2, 10-1 Bi
<< Butler at the top of the Horizon again
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Howard went 12-of-14 from the free
throw line in a 20-point effort, and 18th-ranked Butler used a big second half
to down Loyola-Chicago, 62-47, and clinch a share of the Horizon League title.
Will
<< Danica, have at it and have a good time
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR officials originally set the theme
for this year's Speedweeks at Daytona International Speedway last month when
they told Sprint Cup Series drivers, "boys, have at it and have a good time."
Officials s
<< Cardinals avoid arbitration with Schumaker
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals avoided salary
arbitration with Skip Schumaker, agreeing to terms with the second baseman on
a two-year contract.
The 30-year-old Schumaker became the first Cardinal since
Duke uses balanced attack to dismantle UNC >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Keturah Jackson and Bridgette Mitchell each
scored 12 points in a balanced attack for eighth-ranked Duke, which crushed
18th-ranked North Carolina, 79-51 at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Krystal Thomas added
No. 25 Pitt breezes past Robert Morris >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ashton Gibbs scored a game-high 20 points,
and 25th-ranked Pittsburgh crushed non-conference foe Robert Morris, 77-53, at
Petersen Events Center.
Jermaine Dixon added 18 points for the Panthers (18-6), w
Bryant sidelined for second straight game >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Lakers All-Star guard Kobe
Bryant missed Monday's game against San Antonio due to a sprained left ankle.
It's the second straight game Bryant has sat out. He was also absent on
Satur
Muse, Boston College top BU in Beanpot final >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Almeida picked up the game-winning goal
early in the third period, as Boston College held off a late Boston University
rally to post a 4-3 victory in the championship game of the 58th annual
Beanpot
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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